THE ELECTIONS ARE COMING-WE COULD GO INTO LOCKDOWN

When I landed in the country last month I found out that there was a general election set for the 4^th March 2013.  I didn’t think much of it at the time.  I am not a political person, I didn’t even vote when I was in Australia, EVER.  I was out of the country for my first election after I had turned 18 and then just never enrolled, hence I have never voted.  It is compulsory to vote, so if the Australian Electoral Commission ever caught up with me then I would have a fine to pay.  I am going to blame my mum on this as she also never voted, EVER, and I will just have to say that it ran in the family.  Some of my friends are horrified that I don’t use my vote to ‘have my say’ and that if everyone had the same blasé attitude as me then Australia would be in a world of hurt.  Well luckily there are not many ‘outlaw voters’ that I know of back in Oz and I’m now not there so I don’t have to worry.  So with my political experience non-existent and really non-committal it has only come to light why the Kenyan Elections is so important and on the minds of so many people, locals and foreigners alike.  The seriousness of the election came to light when I was at the Masai Markets this week.  After I had bought my haul of goods and the promise that I would be back next week, the stall owners would look at me strangely and then asked if I was staying in the country for the elections?  Sure I said and didn’t think much of it until all the stall owners were asking me the same question.  Okay so I figured I must be missing something and decided to jump on the internet when I got home to see exactly what I wasn’t understanding and found out just how unprepared I was.

So Kenyan voters will go to the polls on 04 March 2013, five years after a destabilising election in 2007 led to wide-spread violence that resulted in the deaths of approximately 1,200 people and the displacement of over 600,000 more.  For decades, the political elite in Kenya have manipulated ethnic grievances and tribal affiliations to obtain political advantages, a factor that is believed to be the primary cause of the 2007-2008 post-election violence. A referendum in 2010 established a new constitution and ushered in sweeping devolutionary reforms, including the abolishment of the position of prime minister and the introduction of 47 provincial counties (an increase from the previous count of 7 provinces and the capital Nairobi Area). For the first time, voters will elect a bicameral legislature of 394 members and 47 county governors. Additionally, outgoing President Mwai Kibaki is ineligible for a third term, so electors will decide on a new head of state. Leading candidates include current Prime Minister Raila Odinga and current Finance Minister Uhuru Kenyatta, the son of Kenya’s former president from 1964-1978. If neither politician claims a plurality of the vote, then a runoff is scheduled for April.

On the 4 March 2013 the voters will be electing the President, Senators, County Governors, Members of Parliament, Civic Wards and Women County Representatives. They will be the first elections held under the new constitution, which was passed during the 2010 referendum. Due to the terms of the new constitution, it could also be the first presidential election in Kenya where the candidates face a second round run-off between the first and the second candidates if no-one achieves a simple majority in the first round or if the winner does not get 25% of the votes in at least 24 counties.  The election margins are close and experts predict there will be a run-off. To win the presidency outright, a candidate must claim a majority of ballots cast at the national level and 25% of the vote in half of the country’s 47 counties. The election commission has until 11 March, one week after polling stations close, to tally and announce the results. If no candidate receives a majority vote, the top two candidates will face a runoff vote in April, no later than 11 April.  So if the majority isn’t won, then the Kenyans will have to go back to the polls again and vote. 

Not to get into any political controversy there were a few things that were done last election that caused the deaths of over 1500 people and the displacement of hundreds of thousands of people some of which are still displaced to this day.  Foreigners were not directly targeted during this violence, but were caught in the crossfire and affected by the prolonged disruption to services.  The slums of Nairobi and rural areas, particularly the Rift Valley, Eldoret and Nakuru were worst hit.  Since 2008, violence and political demonstrations have occurred throughout Kenya.  In 2012 there were serious incidents in Tana River and Samburu districts. There were riots in Mombasa in August 2012.  Based on what happened in 2007-8, and previous elections, civil unrest is a strong possibility in 2013.  Australian nationals living or travelling in Kenya should be prepared for potential disruptions to services, transport, facilities and medical care.  Supplies of food, basic needs items and petrol may be limited. Shortages and closures to shops and other outlets may occur. 

Following the presidential elections in December 2007, two months of widespread election-related violence occurred. Approximately 1,500 people were killed and more than 300,000 were internally displaced, many of whom remain in camps.  Kenya experienced disruptions to services such as transport, banking and medical care and shortages of essential items including fuel, food and water during this period.  Travel around the country was restricted due to roadblocks.  Flights in and out of Jomo Kenyatta International Airport, Wilson and Mombasa airports continued.  However, a number of flights were cancelled due to fuel shortages.  Road travel to and from the airport was frequently restricted or blocked entirely.  Based on what happened in 2007-8, and previous elections, civil unrest is a strong possibility in 2013. 

The Kenyan government will be better prepared this time.  It has announced that it will deploy extra police and security resources throughout the country during the election period. You should expect this will lead to delays and factor into travel plans.  We strongly recommend that Australians in Kenya monitor the media closely during the election period, particularly reputable local radio stations, for information on safety and security.  Australians in Kenya should consider taking the following precautionary measures well in advance of the election period. 

So after reading the disturbing history of the last elections I can see why people are a little nervous and the reality of the unknown as to what will happen during this election, even with the overhaul of the constitution.  When people (anywhere in the world) have strong feelings and then they think there has been an injustice, from history, we know how pear shaped things can go.  So I am a little more aware now of the atmosphere and I decided to jump onto the Australian Embassy web site here in Kenya to see what their advice was for their citizens and they had provided a link on how we can prepare for this week-end and to be vigilant in the coming weeks.  Especially if there is not an outright winner on Saturday, as then there has to be another election within 4 weeks.    

Suggested preparations by the Australian Embassy here in Nairobi were listed on their web site and that Australians in Kenya should consider taking the following precautionary measures well in advance of the election period.  Remember that during the week before the election it may be difficult to implement these measures:

Prepare a 72-HOUR EMERGENCY KIT:

This will allow you to remain in a safe place during any sort of localised emergency. 

Maintain a GRAB BAG stocked with everything you will need in the event of an emergency.  KEEP TRAVEL DOCUMENTS AND VISAS CURRENT.  You should be aware that in the event of a crisis you are responsible for ensuring you are able to depart Kenya. You should ensure that your travel documentation and visas remain up-to-date to allow a rapid departure. This includes obtaining passports for children born in Kenya and ensuring that any family members that wish to travel with you have a current passport. 

Monitor your VEHICLE FUEL LEVELS and ensure that you maintain at least three quarters of a tank at all times.  You may wish to also consider gerry can supplies to supplement your supply in the event of an emergency.  Research alternative TRAVEL ROUTES from your accommodation and work to key destinations such as transport hubs and medical assistance. 

Monitor your HOUSEHOLD SUPPLIES of non-perishable groceries and potable water.  Be prepared for shortages or lengthy periods where it may be safer to remain in your house or apartment.  Designate a FAMILY RENDEZVOUS POINT in case you are separated and unable to return home.  Identify an IN-COUNTRY SAFE HAVEN in case you need to leave your region of Kenya quickly.  Consider reciprocating with a friend or contact that is living or staying elsewhere in the country.

PLAN FOR PETS.  If you have pets, make advanced, sustainable arrangements for them.  When planning, CONSIDER HOUSE STAFF or employees that you may have as they may be in a vulnerable position.

Suggested Items for a 72 HOUR EMERGENCY KIT

Food and Water Fuel and Light	At least 9 easily-prepared meals
Protein/granola bars	Trail mix/dried fruit
Crackers/cereals	Juice packs or cans
Water (plan on 5 litres per person per day)	Long life milk
Battery-operated lighting (torches, lamps )	Extra batteries
Candles	Lighter and water-proof matches
Personal Supplies and Medication	Map
Manual can opener	Radio (with spare batteries)
Pen and paper	Swiss Army pocket knife
Length of rope	Duct tape
Signalling whistle Flares	Sleeping bags / warm blankets Phone credit
Spare mobile phone batteries and chargers	First Aid kit and supplies
Child/infant supplies	Moist towelettes
Toilet paper	Cleaning supplies (hand sanitiser, soap,shampoo)
Immunisation/vaccination records	Prescription medication
Pet supplies (if applicable)

Suggested Items for a GRAB BAG

Documents  Supplies	Passports
Drivers licences	Auto insurance, registration, title documents
Cheque book	Bank details
List of health care providers	Australian High Commission contacts

Additional items if accommodation is vulnerable:

Medical/dental records	Vaccination records
Medications (prescription and over-counter items)	Birth certificates, citizenship certificates, marriage certificate
Household effects inventory and insurance policy	Family photos
Contracts	Bottled water
Snacks	Kenyan shillings and USD cash
ATM cards and credit cards	Personal items and clothing change
School records	Toilet paper and moist towelettes
Wet weather gear	First Aid kit
Battery operated torch or light	Lighter and/or waterproof matches
Swiss Army pocket knife	Signalling whistle

5 years ago, when Kenya previously held general elections, few anticipated the death, displacement and destruction that the country experienced.  As committed aid workers worked to launch an adequate response to help victims of the violence, they themselves were exposed to ethnic hostility, upheaval and anxiety for the safety of their own families.  Many international staff of NGOs were evacuated, and local staff yet on the ground faced challenges including how to get to and from work, how to access resources (medical, food, phone credit), and how to face each other in the office.

Though we are optimistic that Kenya will not relive the experience of five years ago, it is essential that organisations prepare.

So it is a little bit of a sobering thought that I have been taking the election so blasé.  But now that I am in the know and better informed, I will get prepared early this week and I will stock up on the above mentioned items on my weekly shop on Tuesday.  My boxes from Oz will also be due sometime this week, supposedly on Tuesday/Wednesday which will be perfect timing as it will give me stuff to do should the situation flare and we do have to have a self-imposed lockdown for a week.  AND all going to plan I will be able to visit the butcher this week and buy some ‘proper’ meat to be able to cook on my new BBQ that will be coming in the boxes-so I will make sure I am ready for the worst case scenario.  Being part of the NES group on Facebook you can see postings from foreign consulates on meetings and information for their nationals should things get out of hand and some have even formed task forces to monitor the elections and having monitoring teams deployed around the country to observe the elections. It is serious stuff and it is being taken VERY seriously.  Security advisors have recommended to remain extra careful as we approach the election period when most police officers will be deployed at polling centres thus leaving their regular patrol duties which will indeed lead to higher crimes.

The Red Cross here are putting all their staff and volunteers into a lockdown starting Friday, the day before the elections, and that they should expect to be in lockdown for at least a week.  Lockdown constitutes as not leaving the house at all-under any circumstances.  Pretty serious circumstances that is for sure.  San was saying she knows of companies that have already evacuated their staff to neighbouring countries including Uganda for the week after the elections just to see how it all pans out.    

So with all that said and after being on the Australian Embassy web site I have for the first time registered with Smartraveller which is an online registration service.  Whether you are travelling overseas to visit family, as a tourist, for business or to live, the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade encourages people to register their plans with them before you leave Australia. The registration information you provide will help us to contact or find you in an emergency - whether it is a natural disaster, civil disturbance or family emergency. It may also be used to pass other information to you such as important travel advice updates, notice of elections and information on other matters relevant to travellers and expatriates.  So the Australian Embassy in Nairobi now know that I am in the country during the elections and if they need to contact me they have my details.  It is a small re-assurance to the lead up to what is really the unknown as the election approaches in 6 days’ time. 

All we can do is stay/be optimistic and hope for a violence-free election, have hope for a peaceful and fair election, as the Kenyans forge ahead to secure a future, as equals to every single one of the country’s 41 million inhabitants.  The people deserve better. To put the horror of five years ago behind them, they deserve the chance to vote without fear and elect leaders committed to reform and ready to serve society as a whole rather than the narrow interests of its elites. 

GOOD LUCK KENYA AND MAY THE BEST PARTY WIN COME 4^TH MARCH 2013.